US dollar falls, metals show mixed performance, polysilicon surges 5.7%, alumina rises over 3% [[SMM Daily Review]]

SMM May 9 News:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally declined, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE lead rising together. SHFE aluminum rose by 0.54%, and SHFE lead rose by 0.12%. SHFE zinc and SHFE tin fell by around 0.4%, with SHFE zinc down 0.4% and SHFE tin down 0.43%. The rest of the metals fluctuated slightly. The main alumina contract rose by 3.06%.

In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell by 1.35%, the main polysilicon contract rose by 5.7%, and the main silicon metal contract fell by 0.55%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 0.8%.

》Polysilicon Rebounds from Lows, Surging Over 6% Intraday! What's the Reason? What Supports the Market? 【SMM Flash News】

The ferrous metals series collectively declined, with rebar and HRC both falling over 1%. Rebar fell by 1.63%, and HRC fell by 1.34%. For coking coal and coke, coke fell by 2.1%, and coking coal fell by 1.79%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:02, only LME lead and LME zinc rose together in the overseas market, with LME lead up 0.93% and LME zinc up 0.04%. LME copper fell by 0.89%. The rest of the metals dropped slightly.

In precious metals, as of 15:02, COMEX gold rose by 0.64%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.21%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 1.56%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.05%.

Market conditions as of 15:02 today

》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

【General Administration of Customs: China's Foreign Trade in Goods Grew 2.4% in the First Four Months, with Increases in Integrated Circuit and Automobile Exports】 According to customs statistics, in the first four months of 2025, the total value of China's foreign trade in goods was 14.14 trillion yuan, up 2.4% YoY (the same hereinafter). Exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, and imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. In April, the total value of China's foreign trade in goods was 3.84 trillion yuan, up 5.6%. Exports were 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, and imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, up 0.8%. In the first four months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were 5.04 trillion yuan, up 9.5%, accounting for 60.1% of the total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts were 458.71 billion yuan, up 5.6%; integrated circuits were 405.15 billion yuan, up 14.7%; and automobiles were 264.98 billion yuan, up 4%. According to CCTV News, Lv Daliang, Director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis at the General Administration of Customs, stated: Since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have worked together to effectively respond to external shocks, promoting a sustained rebound and improvement in China's economy, with foreign trade maintaining a steady growth trend.The growth rate of imports and exports in April accelerated by 4.3 percentage points compared to Q1, with export growth expanding and imports turning from decline to increase, demonstrating strong resilience. 》Click to view details

【China's E-commerce Logistics Index Continued to Rise in April, Showing Good Momentum】The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released China's E-commerce Logistics Index for April today (May 9). Driven by various policies aimed at stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and promoting consumption, China's E-commerce Logistics Index continued to rise in April, with all major sub-indices rebounding MoM, indicating a good momentum of growth in online consumption. China's E-commerce Logistics Index for April stood at 111.1 points, up 1.1 points MoM. All major sub-indices increased compared to the previous month.

►The central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on May 9 was 7.2095 RMB per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 15:02, the US dollar index fell by 0.11%. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 3 were 228,000, lower than the market expectation of 230,000 and the previous week's 241,000. The number of initial jobless claims in the US declined last week, following a short-term spike during the spring holiday and the Easter holiday at the end of April. As Fed Chairman Powell recently stated, despite the potential for tariffs to lead to higher unemployment and inflation, the labour market remains robust. The market is paying attention to speeches by several Fed officials later in the day to gain further insights into the economy and the Fed's policy path. Earlier, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and warned of rising risks of inflation and unemployment.

Data:

Data to be released today include Switzerland's Q2 Consumer Confidence Index (seasonally adjusted), China's M2 money supply YoY for April, China's Total Social Financing (YTD) for April, China's New RMB Loans (YTD) for April, Canada's Change in Employment for April, and Canada's Unemployment Rate for April.

Also worth noting: Vice Premier He Lifeng of the State Council will visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 for talks with Swiss leaders and relevant parties. During his visit, as the Chinese head of the China-US economic and trade negotiations, Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with the US head, US Treasury Secretary Bessent. In addition, speeches by Bank of England Governor Bailey, a keynote speech by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams, a speech by Fed Governor Cugler, a speech by 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, a speech by Fed Governor Barr, and speeches by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Waller are also worth paying attention to.

Crude oil:

As of 15:02, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.62%. Last week, OPEC+ announced that it would increase its production target for June by 411,000 barrels per day. Following similar moves in April, the organization appears willing to hold its ground amid concerns about low oil prices and weakening demand. Earlier, foreign media reported that global crude oil inventories remained low, giving OPEC+ the opportunity to scale back its voluntary production cuts before a market surplus eventually arrives.

Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered reported that OPEC+'s latest survey of secondary sources showed that Kazakhstan's crude oil production in March was 1.852 million barrels per day, 384,000 barrels per day higher than its OPEC+ quota. Additionally, the country failed to fulfill its commitment to cut production by 38,000 barrels per day in March to compensate for overproduction, bringing its total overproduction to 422,000 barrels per day. Similar situations are expected to occur in the coming months. Kazakhstan's production in March increased by 240,000 barrels per day YoY, in stark contrast to the combined production decrease of 6.12 million barrels per day in the other eight OPEC+ member countries. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Daily Review

►May 9: SHFE aluminum fluctuated rangebound, with no significant changes in processing fees and mediocre transaction performance. [Daily Review of Spot Aluminum Billet]

►[SMM Daily Review of Nickel Sulphate] On May 9, nickel sulphate prices remained stable.

►Market inquiry prices continued to decline, and high-grade NPI prices remained under pressure in the short term. [Daily Review of NPI]

►[SMM Daily Review of MHP] On May 9, Indonesian MHP prices slightly declined.